DYNAMICS OF EXPORTS, INFRASTRUCTURE, AND GROWTH IN GCC: VARS AND CAUSALITY TESTING

Sufian Eltayeb Mohamed

Abstract


The paper is concerned with analyzing the dynamic effects of exports and infrastructure on GCC economic growth. Panel cointegration methodology is used to test for the existence of a long relationship between the variable. Two tests, Kao (1999) and Johansen cointegration tests are applied to check for cointegration. The results of the two tests reveal that there exists a long run co-integrating relationship between export and infrastructure proxies and economic growth in GCC countries. Additionally, fully modified least square (FMOLS) and dynamic ordinary least square (DOLS) were used to test the magnitude of the long relationship among variables. The results show that export and infrastructure variables are positive and have significant impact on the long run growth of the GCC economy. Further, fixed –effects method is selected as random effect model is rejected based on Hausman test result. The results of fixed effect show that export and infrastructure variables ate positive and statistically significant. With regard to policy, variable mixed results were obtained. As a policy recommendation the study, suggest that proper absorptive capacity such as deep financial institution, good infrastructure quality and supplementing public expenditures should be met in order to maximize the benefits of exports.

JEL: C33; O11; F10; O19; O47

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Keywords


exports; infrastructure; VARs, causality, cointegration, GCC

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References


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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.46827/ejefr.v5i2.1143

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