Norich Muindi Munyasia, James O. Sika


There has been a near complete transition from primary to secondary level of education in Kenya especially given the Free Primary Education and subsidized secondary education. The Free Primary Education, Free Day Secondary Education and the 100% transition policies have led to very high enrolment of students at primary and secondary school levels against the background of scarcity of educational resources that are key in provision of quality education. This paper aims at projecting enrolment in primary and secondary schools in Siaya County by 2030 on the basis of the new Competency Based Curriculum (CBC) under the system of education. The author adopts trend analysis and descriptive survey designs to conduct the study using all school age population (6-17 years) who were 272,226 in 2009 and 339,251 in 2019. Saturated sampling technique was used to obtain the sample size. Purposive sampling was used to select County Quality Assurance and Standards Officer, MOE sub-county directors and an officer from KNBS. Data Analysis Proformas and Key Informant Interview (KII) Guides were used in data collection. Enrolment Ratio Methods were used to project enrolment for primary, junior secondary and senior secondary schools in Siaya County by 2030. Findings of the study indicate that primary school enrolment will increase by 9.81% between 2024 and 2030. Junior secondary school enrolment will increase by 33.44% between 2021 and 2030 while senior secondary school enrolment will increase by 29.63% between 2026 and 2030. These findings inform Teachers Service Commission (TSC), the Ministry of Education, Kenya Institute of Curriculum Development (KICD) and other stakeholders on the possible upsurge in school enrolments as they implement the system of education and thus to ensure quality, appropriate measures have to be taken in acquiring resources for the same.


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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.46827/ejes.v7i7.3166


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