YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT, SKILLS MISMATCH AND POST-WAR LIVELIHOOD TRANSITIONS IN SIERRA LEONE: A CASE STUDY OF WATERLOO
Abstract
Despite the end of the civil war in Sierra Leone 20 years ago, young people in peri-urban areas still suffer from high rates of labour underutilization, but there is little quantitative evidence that can explain how skills, skills fit and post-war structural conditions interact to influence young people's labour-market outcomes and livelihood adjustments. This study builds and tests a structural model that integrates Human Capital Theory, Skills Mismatch Theory and the Sustainable Livelihoods Framework, in which post-war structural constraints (PWC) influence skills mismatch (SM) and employability skills (ES), which in turn affect youth unemployment and underemployment (YU), and all four constructs are related to livelihood transitions (LT). The cross-sectional survey consisted of 250 young people (18–35 years) in Waterloo and was analysed using partial least squares structural equation modelling (PLS-SEM; 5,000 bootstrap subsamples). The reflective measurement model met all reliability and validity criteria (CR = 0.876–0.906; AVE = 0.586–0.660; all HTMT < 0.85). Skills mismatch (β = 0.411) and employability skills (β = −0.410) were the strongest and near-equal competing predictors of YU, with PWC having a direct effect (β = 0.205) and an indirect effect through SM and ES, which accounted for 49.5% of the variance in YU. Livelihood transitions were directly linked to SM (β = 0.312), ES (β = 0.330) and PWC (β = 0.206) but not to YU (β = 0.058, p =.454), suggesting that transitions are not directly tied to being jobless. The results suggest that policy should focus on training to meet local labour demand, and on the reconstruction of skills infrastructure and livelihood portfolios, not job placement.
JEL: J24; J64; O15; O55; I25
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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.46827/ejsss.v12i5.2328
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